James King is a guest blogger on YEMENPEACEPROJECT.COM and writes on the huthi movement and on the uprisings Yemen.. some excertp found below:
"The days of President Ali Abdullah Salih are likely numbered. We’re still miles from that point, but it appears increasingly doubtful that he can survive the end of his term in September 2013, despite his insistence otherwise. More and more, the question is one of how rather thanif."
Will he step down at the year’s end to allow for presidential elections, as called for by the JMP? If the protests continue to escalate, will he attempt to mount a Gaddafi-esque megalomaniacal crack-down, likely forcing civil war(s)? Or will the protest movement coalesce around even bolder demands, not merely Salih’s departure, but the fundamental transformation of Yemen’s political order?
As analysts debate how a post-Salih Yemen might look, we must remember the regime already faces three existing conflicts.
- AQAP: seeks to overthrow the republican system;
- al-hirak coalition, members’ ambitions range from greater Southern autonomy to secession;
- Huthi movement, a family of prominent Zaydi sayyids and their tribal allies that have spearheaded armed confrontation with the state in Yemen’s northernmost provinces.
Perhaps the most pertinent question on Yemen’s future is whether these groups will play (or be allowed to play) a role in any new government. And does this represent a unique opportunity to resolve conflicts by drawing them into a more inclusive state?
For the Huthis in particular, I am convinced that if given the opportunity, they would participate in any pluralistic state that respects Zaydis’ communal rights, whether led by a transitional government or in the context of a new constitutional order.
Despite a concerted propaganda campaign from the Yemeni state that labels them as foreign-funded and inspired (Iran, Hizbollah, even Libya) or separatists seeking to re-establish the Zaydi Imamate, the Huthis and their allies have not declared independence or overthrowing the Republic of Yemen as their ultimate goal.
more on this can be found here The Huthi movement in revolutionary Yemen | Directors' Blog
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