Hosni Mubarak, Bashar al-Assad and other strongmen have fewer options for cushy exile now that so many countries work with the International Criminal Court. Dan Ephron reports.
Jean-Claude Duvalier of Haiti fled to France. Ferdinand Marcos lived out his life in Honolulu.
In the good old days, an ousted dictator who committed terrible crimes against his countrymen might still be able to negotiate a cozy retirement in a place where the living is good. Marcos, having robbed the Philippines for more than two decades, even managed to take the money with him.
But the end of the Cold War and the rise of an international justice system have changed the equation. Contemporary dictators pondering a relocation have far fewer options, most of them unhappy (think North Korea).
The issue asserted itself in the most bizarre of circumstances this week when a former Israeli cabinet minister disclosed having offered Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak refuge in the Jewish state. Compared with some other sanctuaries, Israel is a dream. It has good weather and a functional banking system.
But for Arab leaders especially, the idea of retiring in posh Herzliya or on the shores of the Kinneret might be too much to contemplate. Mubarak preferred to remain in Egypt, where he went on trial this week for allegedly ordering police to fire on the protesters who rose up against him.
First, they’d have to rule out those countries that have accepted the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. Both Gaddafi and Assad allegedly have committed war crimes against their own people. The ICC has already indicted the Libyan leader on referral from the United Nations Security Council. Assad could be next. Countries that have ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court—115 and counting—would be obliged to extradite the two leaders to The Hague. The list includes states that in the past have provided homes to fallen autocrats: Panama (Haiti’s Jean-Bertrand Aristide), Chile (East Germany’s Erich Honecker), Paraguay (Nicaragua’s Anastasio Somoza) and Brazil (Paraguay’s Alfredo Stroessner).
Hawaii Governor Jean Ariyoshi greets ousted Philipppine Dictator Ferdinand Marcos when he arrives in Honolulu after fleeing the Phillipines in February 1986., Dean Sensui / AFP-Getty Images
“There’s no way any of these countries could do the same these days,” says Lawrence Douglas, who teaches law at Amherst College in Massachusetts. “Once the ICC brings charges, you’re basically harboring a fugitive and not just allowing a cushy retirement for a former strongman.”
Next, the strongmen would need to draw a line through countries that care at all for international legitimacy, including much of the Arab world, China, and Russia. Even without having ratified the Rome Statute, these countries would risk isolation and even sanctions if they flouted it, says David Crane, who served as prosecutor of the Special Court for Sierra Leone and indicted Liberian President Charles Taylor. “It’s just not worth the political pain,” he says.
That would leave just a handful of countries, according to Crane, including North Korea, Zimbabwe, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. Only the most desperate rulers would consider North Korea given the country’s extreme poverty and dysfunction. And Syria’s political situation is unstable. Since no one likes to move twice, it would be unappealing as well.
With no place to run, the dictators can only cling to power more tenaciously.
Saudi Arabia has a record of taking in Muslim leaders, including Uganda’s Idi Amin and, more recently, Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The incentive for Saudi leaders is not financial (though the Ben Alis are reported to have brought over millions in cash and looted gold). In fact, the Saudi regime actually paid Amin a large subsidy over the years to stay out of politics. Primarily, the Saudis wish to head off what they view as bad precedents in the region, says Sheri Berman, a political scientist at Barnard College. “They don’t want to see a fellow authoritarian lose his head or worse.”
Whether the Saudis would welcome Gaddafi, with whom they have had tense relations over the years, remains uncertain. And Assad is no great friend of the kingdom either. Ironically, some scholars believe the narrowing of their options is actually prolonging the misery in both their countries. With no place to run, the dictators can only cling to power more tenaciously
I write to you from Bahrain, after living through horrible injustice that I would never wish upon anyone in the world. Security forces attacked my home, broke our doors with sledgehammers, and terrified my family. Without any warning, without an arrest warrant and without giving any reasons; armed, masked men attacked my father. Although they said nothing, we all know that my father's crime is being a human rights activist. My father was grabbed by the neck, dragged down a flight of stairs and then beaten unconscious in front of me. He never raised his hand to resist them, and the only words he said were "I can't breathe". Even after he was unconscious the masked men kept kicking and beating him while cursing and saying that they were going to kill him. This is a very real threat considering that in the past two weeks alone three political prisoners have died in custody. The special forces also beat up and arrested my husband and brother-in-law.
Since their arrest, 3 days ago, we have heard nothing. We do not know where they are and whether they are safe or not. In fact, we still have no news of my uncle who was arrested 3 weeks ago, when troops put guns to the heads of his children and beat his wife severely.
Having studied in America, I have seen how strongly your people believe in freedom and democracy. Even through these horrible times many of the people supporting me are Americans who never thought their government would stand by dictators and against freedom-loving people. To the American people I send my love and gratitude.
I chose to write to you and not to my own government because the Alkhalifa regime has already proven that they do not care about our rights or our lives.
When you were sworn in as president of the United States, I had high hopes. I thought: here is a person who would have never become a president if it were not for the African-American fight for civil liberties; he will understand our fight for freedom. Unfortunately, so far my hopes have been shattered. I might have misunderstood. What was it you meant Mr. president? YES WE CAN… support dictators? YES WE CAN… help oppress pro-democracy protesters? YES WE CAN… turn a blind eye to a people's suffering?
Our wonderful memories have all been replaced by horrible ones. Our staircase still has traces of my father's blood. I sit in my living room and can see where my father and husband were thrown face down and beaten. I see their shoes by the door and remember they were taken barefoot. As a daughter and as a wife I refuse to stay silent while my father and husband are probably being tortured in Bahraini prisons. As a mother of a one-year-old who wants her father and grandfather back, I must take a stand. I will not be helpless. Starting 6pm Bahrain time tonight I will go on a hunger strike. I demand the immediate release of my family members. My father: Abdulhadi Alkhawaja. My husband: Wafi Almajed. My brother-in-law: Hussein Ahmed. My unlce: Salah Alkhawaja.
I am writing this letter to let you know, that if anything happens to my father, my husband, my uncle, my brother-in-law, or to me, I hold you just as responsible as the AlKhalifa regime. Your support for this monarchy makes your government a partner in crime. I still have hope that you will realize that freedom and human rights mean as much to a Bahraini person as it does to an American, Syrian or a Libyan and that regional and political considerations should not be prioritized over liberty and human rights.
I ask of you to look into your beautiful daughters' eyes tonight and think to yourself what you are personally willing to sacrifice in order to make sure they can sleep safe at night, that they can grow up with hope rather than fear and heartache, that they can have their father and grandfathers embrace to run to when they are hurt or in need of support. Last night my one-year-old daughter went knocking on our bedroom door calling for her father, the first word she ever learnt. It tore my heart to pieces. How do you explain to a one-year-old that her father is imprisoned? I need to look into my daughter's eyes tomorrow, next week, in the years to come, and tell her I did all that I could to protect her family and future.
For my daughter's sake, for her future, for my father's life, for the life of my husband, to unite my family again, I will begin my hunger strike.
NATO will NOT be saving lives, it will just do exactly what the U.S. would have done.. it's so obvious why are they acting like they dont want to control the conflict ? .. it's just a game so now by NATO being involved this is going to be one heck of a game.. and besides weren't there stores that Israel sent Gaddafi 50,000 mercenaries? - don't know how valid that is but anyway now that NATO is joining in on the civilian side, ensuring Libyans will be safe- is all a tactic to drive them into so much debt and then take control just like what they always do.. it ain't going to defend libyans it's going to defend its resources for its sake!
it's getting really bad in Syria.. check out this video. Reuters has reported over 38 deaths so far. And now the government has responded by bringing reform some include an increase in wage for all public sectors
