Hosni Mubarak, Bashar al-Assad and other strongmen have fewer options for cushy exile now that so many countries work with the International Criminal Court. Dan Ephron reports.
Jean-Claude Duvalier of Haiti fled to France. Ferdinand Marcos lived out his life in Honolulu.
In the good old days, an ousted dictator who committed terrible crimes against his countrymen might still be able to negotiate a cozy retirement in a place where the living is good. Marcos, having robbed the Philippines for more than two decades, even managed to take the money with him.
But the end of the Cold War and the rise of an international justice system have changed the equation. Contemporary dictators pondering a relocation have far fewer options, most of them unhappy (think North Korea).
The issue asserted itself in the most bizarre of circumstances this week when a former Israeli cabinet minister disclosed having offered Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak refuge in the Jewish state. Compared with some other sanctuaries, Israel is a dream. It has good weather and a functional banking system.
But for Arab leaders especially, the idea of retiring in posh Herzliya or on the shores of the Kinneret might be too much to contemplate. Mubarak preferred to remain in Egypt, where he went on trial this week for allegedly ordering police to fire on the protesters who rose up against him.
First, they’d have to rule out those countries that have accepted the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. Both Gaddafi and Assad allegedly have committed war crimes against their own people. The ICC has already indicted the Libyan leader on referral from the United Nations Security Council. Assad could be next. Countries that have ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court—115 and counting—would be obliged to extradite the two leaders to The Hague. The list includes states that in the past have provided homes to fallen autocrats: Panama (Haiti’s Jean-Bertrand Aristide), Chile (East Germany’s Erich Honecker), Paraguay (Nicaragua’s Anastasio Somoza) and Brazil (Paraguay’s Alfredo Stroessner).
Hawaii Governor Jean Ariyoshi greets ousted Philipppine Dictator Ferdinand Marcos when he arrives in Honolulu after fleeing the Phillipines in February 1986., Dean Sensui / AFP-Getty Images
“There’s no way any of these countries could do the same these days,” says Lawrence Douglas, who teaches law at Amherst College in Massachusetts. “Once the ICC brings charges, you’re basically harboring a fugitive and not just allowing a cushy retirement for a former strongman.”
Next, the strongmen would need to draw a line through countries that care at all for international legitimacy, including much of the Arab world, China, and Russia. Even without having ratified the Rome Statute, these countries would risk isolation and even sanctions if they flouted it, says David Crane, who served as prosecutor of the Special Court for Sierra Leone and indicted Liberian President Charles Taylor. “It’s just not worth the political pain,” he says.
That would leave just a handful of countries, according to Crane, including North Korea, Zimbabwe, Syria, and Saudi Arabia. Only the most desperate rulers would consider North Korea given the country’s extreme poverty and dysfunction. And Syria’s political situation is unstable. Since no one likes to move twice, it would be unappealing as well.
With no place to run, the dictators can only cling to power more tenaciously.
Saudi Arabia has a record of taking in Muslim leaders, including Uganda’s Idi Amin and, more recently, Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The incentive for Saudi leaders is not financial (though the Ben Alis are reported to have brought over millions in cash and looted gold). In fact, the Saudi regime actually paid Amin a large subsidy over the years to stay out of politics. Primarily, the Saudis wish to head off what they view as bad precedents in the region, says Sheri Berman, a political scientist at Barnard College. “They don’t want to see a fellow authoritarian lose his head or worse.”
Whether the Saudis would welcome Gaddafi, with whom they have had tense relations over the years, remains uncertain. And Assad is no great friend of the kingdom either. Ironically, some scholars believe the narrowing of their options is actually prolonging the misery in both their countries. With no place to run, the dictators can only cling to power more tenaciously
Nicholas Kristoff never fails at writing an interesting article that is sure to provoke many. This time, it discusses Democracy in the middle east.
Yes, democracy could be messy in Yemen but just as much as it is in America. The form of government should be what the people want their desires. What are they asking for? is it Democracy? if so, then let em have it!
Who are we to tell the people of Libya, Yemen, Egypt, Bahrain, and etc that democracy is unfit for them!? even our own "democratic state" can't seem to provide a good example of what "Democracy" looks like. so why do we even think we can advise countries on their political system when our government can't even advise themselves?. We should be looking at ourselves first before we start pointing fingers. Perhaps maybe the arab nations will end up providing a better example of what democracy really looks like.
Wael Abbas is the most famous blogger in Egypt and apparently an award winning journalist ?.. oh and he's the face of GOOGLE in the middle east.. this guy's pretty legit stuff.. this is his blog :
If you are in Cairo and into music we recommend participating and making this event a blast.
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 25 · 1:00PM – 4:00PM | EVERYONE IN CAIRO
Here is the message from the event organizers:
To all artists of Egypt :Go down to the streets and play music or make a mini gallery with your artistic production. This is a call to all of you Artists of Egypt ( amateurs or professionals ) to express your art freely in the streets. each one of you pick up your tool (paintings, musical instrument, handcrafts or whatever artistic production you make,call your friends and specially the artists to join you in your chosen artistic spot on Friday the 25th of February after the prayer and play free art for a free country.
This is a way to practice the freedom we’ve just achieved, so go down and express yourself : FREEDOM IS NOW
Suggestions:
1- ( For musicians) avoid playing under people’s houses ( your freedom stops where other people’s freedom starts ).
2- light equipment is easier to carry around in case you need to change your spot ( be mobile, moving while playing is a good idea as well (musicians)
3- call all your friends to come watch you/participate
4- inform all artists friends ( amateurs or professionals )that don’t know about the event
"I am Tahrir: The Art of Revolution" is an online exhibit calling 4 creative submissions Email: tahrir.art@gmail.com http://bit.ly/gxbLX1 the project is now documenting and collecting art produced during, inspired by or dedicated to the January 25 Revolution from around the world. Please send your submissions, be it music, chants, slogans, humor, photography, poetry, comics, to tahrir.art@gmail.com. All art forms are welcome, and authors/creators will be fully credited for their work.” .
"I would like to kiss every martyr's mother on the head," she says before a huge poster of her late son. "And I pray that God may grant them the serenity and patience to bear the unbearable. May Libya become a free country."
On December 19 last year, 26-year-old Tunisian Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in response to his anger of the corrupt regime. His revolt initated demonstrations that have now taken place worldwide. Not Ghonim of Egypt but rather Mohamed of Tunisia become the hero of the world and the symbol of freedom.
Bouazizi, set himself on fire to protest the police that wanted to confiscat his fruit cart bc it was "unlicensed".
After his revolt, a domino effect of of demonstrations followed, first in Tunisia, then in Egypt and Yemen and Bahrain and Libya. I am sure Bouazizi never would have imagined this happening but because of him, the people have awoken.
His mother talks to aljazeera and recorded a message to the protesters in the other Arab states, specifically Libya, reaching out to those who are losing their lives to dictatorial regimes the way her son did.
